{"id":3698,"date":"2025-12-26T12:28:50","date_gmt":"2025-12-26T09:28:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nottoday.media\/en\/?p=3698"},"modified":"2025-12-26T12:28:51","modified_gmt":"2025-12-26T09:28:51","slug":"who-will-remain-after-lukashenko-five-circles-of-power-and-scenarios-of-the-end","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nottoday.media\/en\/activism\/who-will-remain-after-lukashenko-five-circles-of-power-and-scenarios-of-the-end","title":{"rendered":"\u201cWho will remain after Lukashenko: Five Circles of Power and Scenarios of the End\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"

Belarus still lives in a personalist regime, where Alexander Lukashenko is not just the head of state, but the core of the entire system. But the system is aging. And along with it\u2014its creator.<\/strong><\/h4>\n

What will happen when Lukashenko disappears\u2014physically or politically? Who actually rules the country in his shadow? And most importantly\u2014who will the entire structure collapse upon after his departure?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Read in the new Nottoday text\u2014about the five circles of power, two transit scenarios, and one unanswered question: is the system ready for its own end?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Text: Nottoday Editorial<\/strong>
Source: Center for New Ideas, adapted and reinterpreted<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"
“Lukashenko in a chair bolted to the floor” <\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The system was built for one person. But the person is aging. The system is too.<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Belarus has long lived by the logic of a personalist regime: the vertical, the siloviki (security forces), the budget\u2014everything is tied to one person. And as long as he is alive, the system holds. But even the strongest structures crumble when the one who held the key disappears.<\/p>\n

What will happen when Lukashenko leaves? Who will take power? And is the system itself ready for life without its architect?<\/p>\n

Two scenarios: voluntary or accidental<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Controlled Transit<\/strong><\/p>\n

Lukashenko chooses a successor himself. It could be a son, a security official, or a bureaucrat. He himself moves into the shadows\u2014into the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly or even deeper. But the system remains almost unchanged.<\/p>\n

System Failure<\/strong><\/p>\n

Lukashenko disappears suddenly: death, a coup, a crisis, Moscow. In this case, the ruling class will save themselves however they can. And the country will open up to chaos.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Which scenario is more likely? Logic suggests the first. Belarusian reality suggests the second.<\/p>\n

\"\"
“Five circles of hell”<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The Five Circles of Power: Who they are<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Research by the Center for New Ideas identifies five nuclear groups that constitute power in Belarus today. There is no consensus among them. They are united by one thing\u2014dependence on the regime and fear of its collapse.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The First Circle. The Family<\/strong><\/h3>\n

This is not a metaphor. This is literally relatives. Primarily\u2014Viktor Lukashenko. His removal from the post of national security advisor in 2021 gave rise to rumors of a conflict with his father. But there is no real evidence.<\/p>\n

What is important: only a son can guarantee full loyalty. Only he might be acceptable to the Kremlin. Only he can inherit the system without a shock.<\/p>\n

The Second Circle. The Administrative Vertical<\/strong><\/h3>\n

These are bureaucrats who grew up inside the regime. There are many of them. They fear change. They have no ambitions, but they can support anyone who ensures predictability. Their task is to continue.<\/p>\n

The Third Circle. Economic Technocrats<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Younger, smarter, more mobile. These people think pragmatically. For them, stability is more important than the system itself. They are ready for cautious transformation. And it is possible that the “transition manager” will emerge from this group.<\/p>\n

The Fourth Circle. The Siloviki (Security Forces)<\/strong><\/h3>\n

They are not just a service. This is real power. The Presidential Security Service, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the KGB, the General Prosecutor’s Office. They listen to everyone. They appoint. They hold. Since 2020\u2014even more so.<\/p>\n

The siloviki are not interested in reform. They are interested in preserving privileges. And in the absence of a trial.<\/p>\n

The Fifth Circle. Business Close to the Body<\/strong><\/strong><\/h3>\n

These are the directors of state giants: Belaruskali, BelAZ, oil refineries. They are not free, but they are influential. In the regions, they are often more important than governors. Their priority is the status quo. They can be partners of a new regime\u2014if it lets them work.<\/p>\n

\"\"
“The Arch of Fear”<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

They don’t dream of democracy. They fear the future.<\/strong><\/h2>\n

No one in today’s ruling class is leading Belarus to freedom. Not because they have malicious intent. But because they have no other political map. For them, democracy is not an alternative, but a threat. Not a path, but chaos. Not a chance, but a risk of losing everything.<\/strong><\/p>\n

They grew up in a system where power is not service, but security. Where loyalty is more valuable than competence. Where any dissent is suspicion. Where to live is to survive<\/strong>. And when you live like this for decades, any talk of a “new Belarus” sounds like talk of your death\u2014political, social, and possibly physical.<\/p>\n

The ruling class does not want change. It wants to preserve itself<\/h3>\n

It wants everything to stay as it is\u2014or at least not get worse. So that the “new ones” don’t come and ask: “What were you doing from 2020 to 2024?” So they don’t have to explain why they remained silent when people were being beaten. Why they signed orders. Why they received apartments at the budget’s expense. Why they called all of this “service.”<\/p>\n

They are not building the future. They fear being in it<\/h3>\n

Because any future is a revision. And any revision is a threat. They don’t need the new.<\/p>\n

They need a continuation of the old\u2014in a slightly modified form. <\/strong><\/p>\n

Let there be a different leader, let the facade change, let a referendum be held. The main thing is that they themselves are not touched. Their positions. Their influence. Their past.<\/p>\n

That is why this system can transform, but not reform. It can adapt, but not change from within. It is incapable of giving birth to democracy\u2014because it was not born for it.<\/p>\n

And if something changes tomorrow, they will not be the builders of a new country\u2014but its most cautious passengers.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"
“Future conference in which no one participates”<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

What the system truly fears<\/strong><\/h2>\n

From the outside, it seems the system is monolithic. It speaks with one voice, acts without hesitation, leaves no trace of doubt. But inside\u2014it’s different. Inside\u2014there is fear. And each circle of power has its own.<\/p>\n

The siloviki fear a tribunal<\/strong><\/h3>\n

They know what they did. They know whose orders they carried out. Since 2020, they have become not just the pillars of the regime\u2014they have become its hands. Repression, searches, torture, deportations\u2014all this will remain in archives and testimonies. They understand: the fall of the regime could mean Nuremberg. Or the Hague. Or at least revenge from those who are silent today. Therefore, their task is to prevent change at any cost. Even if they have to become the regime themselves.<\/p>\n

Bureaucrats fear being fired<\/strong><\/h3>\n

They are not ideologues. They are not military. They are performers. For them, power is a position, an office, a schedule, a canteen. They are built into the system and do not know how to live outside of it. If the system disappears\u2014they disappear too. They have nothing to offer the world outside the vertical. Therefore, their fear is remaining a “nobody.” Without a position, without status, without purpose.<\/p>\n

Technocrats fear chaos<\/strong><\/h3>\n

They think rationally. For them, the ideal regime is predictable. Without ideology, but with a budget and a course. They are not against reforms\u2014but only cautious ones. Not against change\u2014but not a revolution. They are afraid that instead of a managed transit, a collapse will begin where there will be no room for competence. Where the siloviki will win again. Or the street crowd. Or Moscow.<\/p>\n

Business fears confiscations<\/strong><\/h3>\n

State capitalism Belarusian-style is a deal: you are loyal\u2014you are allowed to work. Break a rule\u2014lose everything. Therefore, big business has learned to have no views. But it is still vulnerable. If the regime collapses\u2014new ones will come. With new laws. With new interests. And no one promises that the former owners will have anything left. Not even the land under the factory.<\/p>\n

The Family fears revenge<\/strong><\/h3>\n

This is Lukashenko’s closest circle. His son, his people, his history. They understand: if the system collapses, they are the ones who will become the symbols of the past. And symbols are not spared. They are not judged\u2014they are burned. They are taken revenge upon publicly. To close the chapter. Therefore, their fear is not for power, but for physical survival.<\/p>\n

Today, these fears hold the system together. But the seams are already cracking. More and more often\u2014in private conversations, in backroom signals, in resignations and transfers\u2014the main question sounds:<\/p>\n

What if everything changes tomorrow?<\/p>\n

Who could lead the country after Lukashenko?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

\u2716 Viktor Lukashenko\u2014a symbol of continuity, but not legitimacy.
\u2716 A security official\u2014controllable, but toxic.
\u2716 A technocrat\u2014a safe choice for the elite, but a stranger to the people.
\u2716 An outside candidate\u2014only possible if the regime collapses.<\/p>\n

\"\"
“Mirror without reflection”<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Conclusion: not the end, but a fracture<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Political transit in Belarus will not be about elections. It will be about fear, compromise, and the struggle for the surviving structure.<\/p>\n

The collapse of the regime is not necessarily freedom. It may simply be a new form of the old dependence.<\/strong><\/p>\n

But one thing is clear: in the shadow of Lukashenko, a new reality is already forming. And who steps out into the light depends on exactly how the one who still holds the country by the throat with a bloody hand disappears.<\/p>\n

Read the full study: “In the Shadow of Lukashenko”<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Belarus still lives in a personalist regime, where Alexander Lukashenko is not just the head of state, but the core of the entire system. But the system is aging. And along with it\u2014its creator. What will happen when Lukashenko disappears\u2014physically or politically? Who actually rules the country in his shadow? And most importantly\u2014who will the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3699,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[14],"class_list":["post-3698","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-activism","tag-chytac-u-jemigracyi"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nottoday.media\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3698","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nottoday.media\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nottoday.media\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nottoday.media\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nottoday.media\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3698"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/nottoday.media\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3698\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3700,"href":"https:\/\/nottoday.media\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3698\/revisions\/3700"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nottoday.media\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3699"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nottoday.media\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3698"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nottoday.media\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3698"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nottoday.media\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3698"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}