{"id":3321,"date":"2025-06-23T22:13:45","date_gmt":"2025-06-23T19:13:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nottoday.media\/en\/?p=3321"},"modified":"2025-06-23T22:17:20","modified_gmt":"2025-06-23T19:17:20","slug":"who-will-remain-after-lukashenko-the-five-circles-of-power-and-scenarios-for-the-end","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nottoday.media\/en\/activism\/who-will-remain-after-lukashenko-the-five-circles-of-power-and-scenarios-for-the-end","title":{"rendered":"Who Will Remain After Lukashenko: The Five Circles of Power and Scenarios for the End"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Belarus still lives under a personalist regime, where Alexander Lukashenko is not just the head of state, but the core of the entire system. But the system is aging. And so is its creator.<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

What will happen if Lukashenko disappears \u2014 physically or politically? Who is really running the country in his shadow? And most importantly \u2014 who will the entire structure collapse on after his departure?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Read in the new Nottoday article \u2014 about five circles of power, two scenarios of transition, and one unanswered question: is the system ready for its own end.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Text: Nottoday editorial team<\/strong>
Source: Center for New Ideas, adapted and reinterpreted<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a>
“Lukashenko in a chair nailed to the floor”<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The system was built for one person. But the person is aging. The system is, too.<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Belarus has long lived by the logic of a personalist regime: the vertical, the security forces, the budget \u2014 everything is tied to one person. And while he lives, the system holds. But even the strongest structures collapse when the one who held the key disappears.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What will happen when Lukashenko leaves? Who will take power? And is the system itself ready to live without its architect?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Two scenarios: voluntary or accidental<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Controlled transition<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n


Lukashenko personally chooses his successor. This could be his son, a security officer, or a bureaucrat. He himself retires into the background \u2014 to the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly or even deeper. But the system remains almost unchanged.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

System breakdown<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n


Lukashenko disappears suddenly: death, coup, crisis, Moscow. In this case, the ruling class will save themselves as best they can. And the country \u2014 will open up to chaos.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Which scenario is more likely? Logic points to the first. Belarusian reality \u2014 to the second.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a>
“Five circles of hell”<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Five Circles of Power: Who Are They<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Research by the Center for New Ideas identifies five core groups that make up power in Belarus today. There is no consensus among them. What unites them is their dependence on the regime and fear of its collapse.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

First Circle. Family<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

This is not a metaphor. These are literally relatives. First and foremost \u2014 Viktor Lukashenko. His removal from the position of national security adviser in 2021 sparked rumors of a conflict with his father. But there is no real evidence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What\u2019s important: only the son can guarantee complete loyalty. Only he can be acceptable to the Kremlin. Only he can inherit the system without shock.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Second Circle. Administrative vertical<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

These are officials who grew up inside the regime. There are many of them. They fear change. They have no ambitions, but can support anyone who ensures predictability. Their task is to continue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Third Circle. Economic technocrats<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Younger, smarter, more mobile. These people think pragmatically. What matters to them is not the system, but its stability. They are ready for cautious transformation. And perhaps, the \u201ctransition manager\u201d will come from this group.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fourth Circle. Security forces<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

They are not just a service. This is real power. The presidential security service, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the KGB, the Prosecutor General\u2019s Office. They listen to everyone. They appoint. They hold. After 2020 \u2014 even more so.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The security forces are not interested in reform. They are interested in preserving privileges. And in avoiding trial.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fifth Circle. Business Close to the Throne<\/strong><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

These are the directors of state giants: Belaruskali, BelAZ, oil refining. They are not free, but they are influential. In the regions \u2014 often more important than governors. Their priority is the status quo. They can be partners of the new regime \u2014 if it lets them work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a>
“Arch of Fear”<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

They do not dream of democracy. They fear the future.<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

No one in today\u2019s ruling class is leading Belarus to freedom. Not because they are malicious. But because they have no other political map. For them, democracy is not an alternative, but a threat. Not a path, but chaos. Not a chance, but a risk of losing everything.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

They grew up in a system where power is not service, but security. Where loyalty is valued more than competence. Where any dissent is suspicious. Where to live is to survive<\/strong>. And when you live like this for decades, any talk of a \u201cnew Belarus\u201d sounds like talk of your death \u2014 political, social, and perhaps even physical.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The ruling class does not want change. It wants to survive<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

It wants everything to stay as it is \u2014 or at least not get worse. For no newcomers to come and ask: \u201cWhat did you do from 2020 to 2024?\u201d So they don’t have to explain why they were silent when people were beaten. Why they signed orders. Why they received apartments at the state\u2019s expense. Why they called all this \u201cservice.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They do not build the future. They are afraid to find themselves in it<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Because any future is a revision. And any revision is a threat. They do not need the new.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They need a continuation of the old \u2014 in a slightly changed form.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let there be another leader, let the facade change, let there be a referendum. The main thing is that they themselves are not touched. Their positions. Their influence. Their past.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is why the system can transform, but not reform. It can adapt, but not change from within. It cannot give birth to democracy \u2014 because it was not born for it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And if something changes tomorrow, they will not be the builders of a new country \u2014 but its most cautious passengers.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a>
“Conference of the Future, in which no one participates”<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

What the system is really afraid of<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

From the outside, the system seems monolithic. It speaks with one voice, acts without hesitation, leaves no trace of doubt. But inside \u2014 it\u2019s different. Inside \u2014 there is fear. And each circle of power has its own.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The security forces fear a tribunal<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

They know what they did. They know whose orders they carried out. Since 2020, they have become not just the regime\u2019s support \u2014 they have become its hands. Repressions, searches, torture, deportations \u2014 all this will remain in the archives and testimonies. They understand: the fall of the regime may mean Nuremberg. Or The Hague. Or at least revenge from those who are silent today. Therefore, their task is to prevent change at any cost. Even if they themselves have to become the regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The officials fear dismissal<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

They are not ideologues. They are not military. They are executors. For them, power is a position, an office, a schedule, a canteen. They are embedded in the system and do not know how to live outside it. If the system disappears \u2014 so do they. They have nothing to offer the world outside the vertical. Their fear is to become nobody. Without a position, without status, without meaning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The technocrats fear chaos<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

They think rationally. For them, the ideal regime is predictable. Without ideology, but with a budget and a course. They are not against reforms \u2014 but only cautious ones. Not against changes \u2014 but not a revolution. They are afraid that instead of a managed transition there will be a collapse, in which there will be no place for competence. In which the security forces will win again. Or the street crowd. Or Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Business fears confiscations<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

State capitalism, Belarus-style, is a deal: you are loyal \u2014 you are allowed to work. Break the rule \u2014 lose everything. Therefore, big business has learned not to have opinions. But it is still vulnerable. If the regime falls \u2014 the new ones will come. With new laws. With new interests. And no one promises that the previous owners will keep anything. Not even the land under the factory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The family fears revenge<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

This is Lukashenko\u2019s closest circle. His son, his people, his story. They understand: if the system collapses, they will become symbols of the past. And symbols are not spared. They are not judged \u2014 they are burned. They are avenged publicly. To close the chapter. Therefore, their fear is not for power, but for physical survival.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today these fears hold the system together. But the seams are already cracking. More and more often \u2014 in private conversations, backstage signals, resignations and reshuffles \u2014 the main question is heard:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What if everything changes tomorrow?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Who can lead the country after Lukashenko?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u2716 Viktor Lukashenko \u2014 a symbol of continuity, but not legitimacy.
\u2716 Security officer \u2014 manageable, but toxic.
\u2716 Technocrat \u2014 a safe choice for the elite, but alien to the people.
\u2716 An outsider candidate \u2014 possible only if the regime collapses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a>
“A mirror without a reflection”<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Conclusion: not an end, but a fracture<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Political transition in Belarus will not be about elections. It will be about fear, compromise, and the struggle for a surviving structure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The collapse of the regime does not necessarily mean freedom. It may simply be a new form of old dependence.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

But one thing is clear: in Lukashenko\u2019s shadow, a new reality is already forming. And who will come into the light depends on how exactly the one who still holds the country by the throat with a bloody hand disappears.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Read the full study: “In the Shadow of Lukashenko”<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

What will happen if Lukashenko disappears \u2014 physically or politically? Who is really running the country in his shadow? And most importantly \u2014 who will the entire structure collapse on after his departure? Read in the new Nottoday article \u2014 about five circles of power, two scenarios of transition, and one unanswered question: is the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3322,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3321","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-activism"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nottoday.media\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3321","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nottoday.media\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nottoday.media\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nottoday.media\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nottoday.media\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3321"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/nottoday.media\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3321\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3324,"href":"https:\/\/nottoday.media\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3321\/revisions\/3324"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nottoday.media\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3322"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nottoday.media\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3321"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nottoday.media\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3321"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nottoday.media\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3321"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}