Activism
Belarus still lives under a personalist regime, where Alexander Lukashenko is not just the head of state, but the core of the entire system. But the system is aging. And so is its creator.
What will happen if Lukashenko disappears — physically or politically? Who is really running the country in his shadow? And most importantly — who will the entire structure collapse on after his departure?
Read in the new Nottoday article — about five circles of power, two scenarios of transition, and one unanswered question: is the system ready for its own end.
Text: Nottoday editorial team
Source: Center for New Ideas, adapted and reinterpreted
The system was built for one person. But the person is aging. The system is, too.
Belarus has long lived by the logic of a personalist regime: the vertical, the security forces, the budget — everything is tied to one person. And while he lives, the system holds. But even the strongest structures collapse when the one who held the key disappears.
What will happen when Lukashenko leaves? Who will take power? And is the system itself ready to live without its architect?
Two scenarios: voluntary or accidental
Controlled transition
Lukashenko personally chooses his successor. This could be his son, a security officer, or a bureaucrat. He himself retires into the background — to the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly or even deeper. But the system remains almost unchanged.
System breakdown
Lukashenko disappears suddenly: death, coup, crisis, Moscow. In this case, the ruling class will save themselves as best they can. And the country — will open up to chaos.
Which scenario is more likely? Logic points to the first. Belarusian reality — to the second.
Five Circles of Power: Who Are They
Research by the Center for New Ideas identifies five core groups that make up power in Belarus today. There is no consensus among them. What unites them is their dependence on the regime and fear of its collapse.
First Circle. Family
This is not a metaphor. These are literally relatives. First and foremost — Viktor Lukashenko. His removal from the position of national security adviser in 2021 sparked rumors of a conflict with his father. But there is no real evidence.
What’s important: only the son can guarantee complete loyalty. Only he can be acceptable to the Kremlin. Only he can inherit the system without shock.
Second Circle. Administrative vertical
These are officials who grew up inside the regime. There are many of them. They fear change. They have no ambitions, but can support anyone who ensures predictability. Their task is to continue.
Third Circle. Economic technocrats
Younger, smarter, more mobile. These people think pragmatically. What matters to them is not the system, but its stability. They are ready for cautious transformation. And perhaps, the “transition manager” will come from this group.
Fourth Circle. Security forces
They are not just a service. This is real power. The presidential security service, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the KGB, the Prosecutor General’s Office. They listen to everyone. They appoint. They hold. After 2020 — even more so.
The security forces are not interested in reform. They are interested in preserving privileges. And in avoiding trial.
Fifth Circle. Business Close to the Throne
These are the directors of state giants: Belaruskali, BelAZ, oil refining. They are not free, but they are influential. In the regions — often more important than governors. Their priority is the status quo. They can be partners of the new regime — if it lets them work.
They do not dream of democracy. They fear the future.
No one in today’s ruling class is leading Belarus to freedom. Not because they are malicious. But because they have no other political map. For them, democracy is not an alternative, but a threat. Not a path, but chaos. Not a chance, but a risk of losing everything.
They grew up in a system where power is not service, but security. Where loyalty is valued more than competence. Where any dissent is suspicious. Where to live is to survive. And when you live like this for decades, any talk of a “new Belarus” sounds like talk of your death — political, social, and perhaps even physical.
The ruling class does not want change. It wants to survive
It wants everything to stay as it is — or at least not get worse. For no newcomers to come and ask: “What did you do from 2020 to 2024?” So they don’t have to explain why they were silent when people were beaten. Why they signed orders. Why they received apartments at the state’s expense. Why they called all this “service.”
They do not build the future. They are afraid to find themselves in it
Because any future is a revision. And any revision is a threat. They do not need the new.
They need a continuation of the old — in a slightly changed form.
Let there be another leader, let the facade change, let there be a referendum. The main thing is that they themselves are not touched. Their positions. Their influence. Their past.
This is why the system can transform, but not reform. It can adapt, but not change from within. It cannot give birth to democracy — because it was not born for it.
And if something changes tomorrow, they will not be the builders of a new country — but its most cautious passengers.
What the system is really afraid of
From the outside, the system seems monolithic. It speaks with one voice, acts without hesitation, leaves no trace of doubt. But inside — it’s different. Inside — there is fear. And each circle of power has its own.
The security forces fear a tribunal
They know what they did. They know whose orders they carried out. Since 2020, they have become not just the regime’s support — they have become its hands. Repressions, searches, torture, deportations — all this will remain in the archives and testimonies. They understand: the fall of the regime may mean Nuremberg. Or The Hague. Or at least revenge from those who are silent today. Therefore, their task is to prevent change at any cost. Even if they themselves have to become the regime.
The officials fear dismissal
They are not ideologues. They are not military. They are executors. For them, power is a position, an office, a schedule, a canteen. They are embedded in the system and do not know how to live outside it. If the system disappears — so do they. They have nothing to offer the world outside the vertical. Their fear is to become nobody. Without a position, without status, without meaning.
The technocrats fear chaos
They think rationally. For them, the ideal regime is predictable. Without ideology, but with a budget and a course. They are not against reforms — but only cautious ones. Not against changes — but not a revolution. They are afraid that instead of a managed transition there will be a collapse, in which there will be no place for competence. In which the security forces will win again. Or the street crowd. Or Moscow.
Business fears confiscations
State capitalism, Belarus-style, is a deal: you are loyal — you are allowed to work. Break the rule — lose everything. Therefore, big business has learned not to have opinions. But it is still vulnerable. If the regime falls — the new ones will come. With new laws. With new interests. And no one promises that the previous owners will keep anything. Not even the land under the factory.
The family fears revenge
This is Lukashenko’s closest circle. His son, his people, his story. They understand: if the system collapses, they will become symbols of the past. And symbols are not spared. They are not judged — they are burned. They are avenged publicly. To close the chapter. Therefore, their fear is not for power, but for physical survival.
Today these fears hold the system together. But the seams are already cracking. More and more often — in private conversations, backstage signals, resignations and reshuffles — the main question is heard:
What if everything changes tomorrow?
Who can lead the country after Lukashenko?
✖ Viktor Lukashenko — a symbol of continuity, but not legitimacy.
✖ Security officer — manageable, but toxic.
✖ Technocrat — a safe choice for the elite, but alien to the people.
✖ An outsider candidate — possible only if the regime collapses.
Conclusion: not an end, but a fracture
Political transition in Belarus will not be about elections. It will be about fear, compromise, and the struggle for a surviving structure.
The collapse of the regime does not necessarily mean freedom. It may simply be a new form of old dependence.
But one thing is clear: in Lukashenko’s shadow, a new reality is already forming. And who will come into the light depends on how exactly the one who still holds the country by the throat with a bloody hand disappears.